【4.8~5.2%】インフレは10月か11月にピークを迎える

フィリピン



【4.8~5.2%】インフレは10月か11月にピークを迎える

インフレは10月か11月にピークに達すると見られるが、中央銀行の政策決定通貨委員会のメンバーの一人によれば7%になることはない。

内閣レベルの開発予算調整委員会は、2018年のインフレ予測の範囲を、7月の前回の会合で4-4.5%から4.8-5.2%に引き上げた。

2019年のエコノミックマネージャーは、3%から4%の平均インフレ率を見ているが、基本財の価格上昇率は2020年から2〜4%の目標範囲に戻ると予想している。

9月のインフレ率は9年ぶりの高値を更新し、6.7%となり、9ヶ月平均は政府の目標を5%上回った。

フェリペ・メダッラ財務相は記者会見で、来月もインフレが進行すると語った。のちに10月か11月を意味すると記者団に明らかにした。

しかし、メダッラ氏は、個人的な計算を用いて、前年比が7%にはならないと述べた。

前月の値上げについては、メダッラ氏は今月はすでにピークを迎えており、11月からは減少すると述べた。

 



 

Inflation is seen peaking in October or November but would unlikely hit 7 percent, a member of the central bank’s policy-making Monetary Board said Tuesday.

The Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee raised its 2018 inflation forecast range to 4.8-5.2 percent from 4-4.5 percent during its previous meeting in July.

For 2019, economic managers see headline inflation averaging between 3 percent and 4 percent, while they expect the rate of increase in prices of basic goods to return within the 2-4 percent target range starting 2020.

In September, inflation reached a new over nine-year high of 6.7 percent, bringing the nine-month average to 5 percent, above the government’s target.

Monetary Board member Felipe M. Medalla told a press conference that inflation could still go up next month, later clarifying to reporters that he meant October or November.

But Medalla said the year-on-year rate would not reach the 7-percent level, citing his personal computation.

As for the month-on-month price increases, Medalla said these would have had peaked already this month and decline starting November.

“We expect the month-on-month to start normalizing already. But because of the year-on-year, which is an accumulation of 12 months, [inflation] may still go up,” Medalla said.

As far as monetary policy is concerned, Medalla said: “If there are signs that inflation is already abating as measured by the month-on-month, we may take a pause. But that is too early to tell at this point.”

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas already raised the key interest rate by 150 basis points so far this year, with back-to-back 50-bp hikes delivered in August and September.

Read more: http://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/199173/bsp-inflation-peak-october-november#ixzz5U5thF5Cs
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